QB Findings for the “League Winner” Series on BlueChipScouting.com

As part of my “League Winner” series, I wanted to have a massive data dive into the last three seasons to see if QB successfulness is predictive or not. To do this, I used my 2017 data to “predict” 2018 success rates. I, then, used 2018 data to work out where 2017 went wrong.

I found a couple of unexpected results and I noted down why it went wrong. I added a new category as a result which now meant I had: success, failure, opt-out. The opt-out was using my own NFL knowledge to help filter down expectations and narrow down the people I think had a realistic chance of success.

I, then, compared it to public data of which QBs were “League Winners” and found while my 2017 to 2018 data wasn’t the best most of it was due to the lack of input data.

I followed this process for 2018->2019 and found that due to more data over the last couple of seasons that the success rate was much higher. I could go into the 2017 data with more substantial focus if the 2018 data were given the opt-out.

The success rate was much higher and only one QB narrowly missed out in 2019 (Kirk Cousins). I compared it to public data of which QBs were “League Winners” and found that in 2019, the system predicted seven of the eight most popular league winners which covered almost 80% of league winners. I noted in the article that 21.2% was due to Tannehill mid-season coming in and the smartest players would have picked him up.

I also talked about every QB that the formula picked up on and if anyone is interested in reading the full article it is linked here: https://www.bluechipscouting.com/articles/zr/ff/2020/lw/qbfindings